You're right - let's talk facts as yours seem to be a bit out of date. Starting point in your post is an article of 14th June in le Soir, the Belgian newspaper.
Sobelair is historically the air charter affiliate of Sabena, the predecessor of SN Airlines (http://www.sobelair.be/company/index.htm). This also implies that historically, the assets - planes in particular - were run as part of the SN group and maintained by Sabena Technics, another old Sabena affiliate. In addition, when Sabena was still alive it was more oftne than not piling up the losses whilst Sobelair was making profits, alebit meagre ones. The reasons thereto were its lower crew wages (ironic). As you rightly point out, Sobelair has been acquired by a Mr Vastapane, a Belgian entrepreneur. To date, the company provides most flights of to JetAir, one of Belgium's major TOs - arguably secure cashflow.
Mr Vastapane (Belgian World Airlines) made a conditional offer for Sobelair in April 2002. The conditions were (1) agreement with the pilots’ union to accept a 25% reduced salary, and (2) leasing company Deutsche Operating Leasing AG (then: DSF) to lease two Boeing 767s at a lower rate than the then prevailing rate.
At the time of the offer, Belgian World Airlines confirmed its intention to work closely with SN Brussels Airlines and to fly to Moscow, Istanbul, Cairo, Tel-Aviv, Kinshasa, Dakar and Johannesburg.
The pilots union, however, opposed the BWA conditions on 22nd April which, in turn, led to the lapsing of the BWA offer. At the time, the Sobelair survival chances were assessed as slim. The rumoured MBO by the personnel, didn't however materialise either. Notwithstanding, rumours said the MBO would be backed by Arab-American capital and focus on co-operation with BA.
In June 2002, Vastapane finally acquires Sobelair with concessions by both pilot and cabin crew unions (albeit more limited than originally intended by Vastapane). DOL sets as conditions (http://www.dol-ag.de/main-de/news/DOL-Zwi.Be.02.pdf) that Sobelair acquiror, BWA, puts up more security to underpin its leasing obligations in return for a reduction of the leasing rates. Vastapane initially refused, but then relented earlier this month and committed to provide an additional capital injection. That deals with the leasing cost issue, and somewhat with the wage cost. A further wage cut, negotiated under the spectre of financial difficulties, may be just around the corner.
The real attraction of Sobelair are the African routes that were previously served by Sabena. SNAB had to jettison those lines under the new management plan despite those lines being some of the most, if not the most, profitable of the whole of Sabena. The politically motivated SN buyout/refinancing team, however, wanted SN to focus on a regional network commensurate with the economic interests of its client base (contrary to those backing Swiss and see what happened there).
Interestingly, Vastapane/Sobelair and SNBA, represented by Counts Lippens and Davignon, have reportedly (http://doc.lesoir.be/scripts/$cshtml.exe?TO_PAGE=lesoir/recherche/recherche:LANG=Francais) negotiated a non-agression pact in respect of the Jo'burg route built on SNBA feedring to long haul flights operated by Sobelair. Capturing Sobelair would in effect partially re-build the old Sabena and allow SNAB to regain the margins Sobelair is now making.
Note that SNBA got its wage rates renegotiated as part of the bankruptcy-driven workout. Also note that Sobelair has historically operated at lower wage costs than Sabena - talk about irony.
Now, let's go back to the personae dramatis negotiating the non-agression pact between Sobelair and SNBA. Vastapane is a close associate of Baron Frere, Belgium's sole raider with an international reputation (of Bertelsman and TotalFina repute). Frere is the reference shareholder of NPM/CNP, in effect a listed VC fund. One of its holdings is a 75% of Distripar, a company previously 100% owned by Vastapane. The latter also held several positions with CNP.
In addition, Frere has carved up the whole of Belgium's economic pie by judiciously playing his cards in the 80s takeover of Societe Generale de Belgique, the country's oldest conglomerate "controlling" allegedly at one time more than a third of the country's economic output. In several deals, he has put heads together with the Lippens family. And, also, Davignon is a former Governor (CEO) of that famous SGdB and later a Board Member of Suez, the successful acquiror of the SGdB. It's a small world down there and they know how to read financial statements...
Oh, lest I forget - SNAB made in 2002 a net loss (after extraordinaries including a one-off gain from selling slots!). If we look at the cash figures, it had in 2002 a net cash outflow (unadjusted for working capital changes) of nearly EUR65 million. Did someone say profitable? I read in the press, but not on the company's web site, that SNBA proudly reported they made a profit in Q2 of this year - well isn't that something. The whole indstry has just had two relatively decent quarters (compared to hell just before that) and these guys managed one - some accomplishment.
CONCLUSIONS: + I don't seen any evidence to sustain the claim that SNBA is in brilliant financial shape + Subject to wage renegotiations, Sobelair will get its cost issue adressed just as they have the leasing rates issue + It is unlikely unions will resist negotiations with Sobelair management in light of the weakness of the air transport market. Where else would their members work? + Sobelair has a stabler cashflow than SNBA as they have contracts for charter flights with JetAir booked in advance and cargo revenues whereas SNBA is subject to general retail market movements + Sobelair has access to SNBA reference shareholders who think finance, not politics and cetainly not nostalgia + Sobelair has a trophy asset that SNBA badly wants - the African routes + At the time of the SN bankruptcy, five bidders were reported to have put offers in for Sobelair including Preussag (now: TUI), the owner of JetAir. If the assets were attractive then, why not now? And why would SNBA be a better partner for Sobelair than, say, TUI which already operates many charter flights through its own airline?
All this leads me to assess the situation as one where it is in the interest of SNBA to diversify its cashflow sources by buying into the stable cashflow of Sobelair whilst also gaining access to the African routes. This in turn could allow it to capture more "feeder traffic" now lost to main competitor AF.
I'll be happy to read your evidence to indicate otherwise. And no, an article of 14th June does not do.
